And Iran

There are many out there who seem to fear the progress that Iran has made in the last few years when it comes to nuclear technology. Many fear that once Iran has the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon, they will take that bomb and strap it to a missile in an attempt to destroy Israel. While these concerns are not without merit, there is not a very realistic chance that that will happen.

When we look back at the first and arguably only nuclear standoff, we know that the idea of mutually assured destruction can be an effective way of staving of nuclear attack. Some argue that there are those out there that would be willing to die to destroy their enemy, but this logic will not hold when it comes to entire governments. While it is clear that many leaders around the world are willing to sacrifice the needs and wants of their people in order to accomplish their goals, there is no evidence that those same leaders are willing to truly risk nuclear war to accomplish their goals.

What Iran tried to accomplish when it test fired several short and long-range missiles this weekend was nothing different that what North Korea did this last summer. Iran is positioning itself for negotiations with the international community which will begin the first week of October. This all come on the heals of the international community discovering that Iran has had a secret nuclear facility that it has been using to develop nuclear technology for the last several years.

Should the international community be concerned that another state may become nuclear in the the next few years? Absolutely, but not for fear of war. Many nuclear powers have fought wars without using nuclear weapons. Rather, they should be concerned that the technology is secure and that it cannot reach the hands of the small groups of individuals who do wish to start nuclear war.

While the media thrives on images of rockets and missiles being test fired as a show of force, the only real power that these images give a country is the fear that they create. There is no true threat that Iran will destroy the middle east in the next few year, that is unless they forget to lock up their nuclear weapons at night and one or two of them just "happen" to disappear.

The Power of The Post

The recent elections in the country of Iran have caused uproar around the world as the opposition to the current leader Ahmadinejad, has cried foul as the election results have come in. The more conservative runner up Moussavi has claimed that there was major election fraud including the lack of available ballots to perspective voters. The United States has not recognized Ahmadinejad as the elected leader and protests have sprung up around the world as Iranians have tried to voice their distaste with the election. Why should the American people be concerned with the elections half way across the world? It all goes back to the nuclear problem. Should Iran be allowed to have a nuclear weapons program and if not, how does the international community… and by the international community I mean the United States, stop them from developing their programs.
The difference between Ahmadinejad and Moussavi is the difference between Bush and Obama. One is a man who believes that the only way to accomplish the difficulty things in politics is through force. The other believes that there in a greater need for the leaders of the world government to talk to each other and work together to overcome the differences that separate us. For years the combination of Bush and M have led to the ever increasing distrust of one another and the aggressive stance that each has taken towards the other. In the United States, the people have said “enough”, clearly voting for the ideals that Obama has promised and hoping that the “Change” offered is more than just a clever and catchy campaign slogan.
It appears that a good chunk of the people of Iran feel the same way. Tired of a man who acts as a dictator and hoping for a man who will work with the new American President in a way that benefits the people and not simply the government’s stance on the world stage. While I am still unsure of how President Obama is doing, it is clear that he is reaching out to the world in a way that has not been seen in almost a decade.
I will say that I support an open discussion with Iran on their nuclear program. We need more allies in the Middle East. We are dangerously close to the complete breakdown of relations with North Korea. We still have massive number of troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan. While the US has one of the biggest and best funded armies in the world, the toll that the wars have taken on the American People, let alone the military forces, will not be seen for years to come.
While we have no control over the outcome of the elections, we can learn from others, and while the Iranians may spend the next few years with the same Bush like, aggressive leader, we can hope and pray that those with the presence of mind to take a step back and think first, act second, will come to power, overlooking the power of their post, creating a safer world and possibly a Zion like place for the people they lead.

Pushing His Luck

This last week the government of North Korea sentenced two American journalists to 12 years of hard labor in a prison camp. The two female journalists were arrested along the Chinese, North Korean border by North Korean border guards. This step has only further strained the relationship between the North Korean Government and the rest of the world as North Korea continues to advance its nuclear weapons program despite outrage expressed by the international community. The arrest of the two journalists has raise the stakes a Kim Jong Ill has work hard to remain the focus of attention in the international community. It is still unclear if the arrest was legal or if the journalist were even in North Korean territory when the arrest took place.
While I have commented several times about the North Korean Government’s need to remain the center of attention, at times comparing Kim Jong Ill to an overgrown child, it is becoming clear that his is an overgrown child with the ability to start an international war. While his past record has shown that he will push the boundaries until he gets what he wants, these recent tantrums have shown us just how far he is willing to go to get his way. Ill is taunting the international community to push back. Once they do, he uses the “international sanctions” as an excuse to threaten war.
Will Kim Jong Ill take this episode to the point of invading South Korea or launching a nuclear warhead at Japan? I don’t know. We must, however, start to consider if he is truly crazy enough to take it that far. It must be unclear if Kim Jong Ill is crazy to Washington if the President and democratically controlled congress have already given their support to military actions in Korea. Committing to a third war when they are doing everything they can to act like they are ending the other two. Do I believe that we will go back to war with North Korea (remember that we never actually ended the Korean War of the 50’s)? I don’t believe so, but Kim Jong Ill has done a great job of convincing us that he may be just crazy enough to do so. Chalk one up for North Korea

That Didn’t Take Long

North Korea's announcement that it had detonated a second nuclear weapon this morning was confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey who recorded a 4.7 magnitude seismic event at the same site that North Korea tested its first nuclear device in October of 2006. The immediate reaction from the international community was expected and consistent. All major players in the nuclear world came out and condemned the move, going as far as having President Obama say the test was "directly and recklessly challenging the international community." There was only one surprise in the reactions of the international community. China, who has been North Korea's strongest ally, "expresses firm opposition" which is in stark contrast to its previous support. Is this a sign that China now believes that Kim Jong Il has gone too far?

The real concern now is how to respond. The UN Security Council will meet this afternoon to discuss the test and most likely condemn the action with a strongly worded letter. Where the true concern should lie, is what will be the response of the individual counties in the world. Will the US feel the need to stop Kim Jong from developing weapons that can reach the United States? If the US does decide to take action, will China step in and provide them support, or will the alliance break under the strain of the North Korean determination to be a 1^st world country? We must wait and see, but most likely North Korea just upset that no one is paying them any attention.

Playing With the Big Boys

In an expected move last Friday, North Korea test launched a missile that would show that the country was capable of launching a nuclear weapon that could possibly reach as far as the United States. While the move has been seen as hostile by most countries, as well as much of the United Nations, any moves to punish North Korea are sure to have little, if any, effect. Why won't North Korea stop developing nuclear weapons? The answer is simple; they want to play with the big boys.

At the very mention of nuclear weapons, everyone pays attention. It does not matter how small you are, or how much military force you can scrounge up, if others think you have the biggest stick, they are going to listen to you. The "haves" as they are called, or the countries that currently have nuclear weapons, are always looked at in a different way than the "have not's". To understand this point, we need only hear a few names: The US, Russia, China, India, The UK, and Israel. I am sure that each of us knows these names and will have some idea of where in the world they are. You may even know a little about our nation's policy towards these countries. Now consider these names: Chad, Argentina, Moldova, Belarus, Somalia, and Turkmenistan. My guess is that you have no idea where any more than one or two of those countries are, and probably have no idea as to US policy towards them.

Now let's consider two final names: North Korea and Iran. Before the war in Iraq, most of us could not tell the difference between Iraq and Iran. All that has changed in the last few years as the potential of these countries developing a nuclear program became clear.

Yes there is reason for us to be concerned with more nuclear weapons in more hands around the world. No one thinks it will be a good idea to go back to a Cold War stance of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), and nuclear proliferation should be done with extreme care. There is no reason to assume, however, that North Korea' s purpose in developing nuclear technology is so that it will be used. We can see from their past actions that they simply what to be included in the conversation at the "adult table".

When North Korea detonated their first nuclear device in 2006, the world quickly moved North Korea to the center of attention. Media coverage focused of the county and its eccentric leader for months. Every news organization vied for the chance to go inside North Korea and be the first "on scene", and for the first time after the Korean War, we all knew what was going on across the Korean Peninsula.

Overnight, North Korea moved from being a small country on the other side of the world that had a crazy leader, to a small nuclear country on the other side of the world with the same crazy leader, but now we cared about them. With efforts for peace and nuclear disarmament we allowed North Korea to remain a major actor in world politics. We sent the New York Philharmonic to play a historic concert that was "bridging the gap" between our nation and theirs. And then the North Korean government started to destroy its nuclear program, or at least the part of the program that we could see and could be broadcast on CNN. Reporters showed us how much progress was being made and how well the world was getting along.

But all that faded away over time, and we all once again stop paying attention to Kim Jong Il. We knew that the North Koreans had nuclear weapons, but they could not send them anywhere. We stopped including North Korea in the discussions and moved on to the "economic crisis" that was bringing the world to its knees. So what is North Korea to do, how about launching a "satellite" that we all know is just a way to show that they have the ability to launch a nuclear weapon into space.

And look, it worked! We all care about North Korea again. We all want to see what is going on half way around the world, and the media is happy to supply us with pictures of projected missile flight paths and of a tiny dot in the middle of a field that we are told is a missile that is ready for launch. We once again respect, or should I say fear, what someone has the power to do on the other side of the world.

Will North Korea use nuclear weapons on South Korea, Japan, or even the United States? That is doubtful. They simply want to feel like one of the big kids and the best way they know to make it happen, Carry the biggest stick around. Don't worry about North Korea. Wait for Iran to develop a nuclear weapons program. Then we might have something to worry about.